Predicting Tesla's 2020 Q4 Earnings Call.

Here’s my slightly bold predictions in anticipation of Tesla’s Q4 Earnings Call on 1/27. On market close of 1/15 $826.16 per share, marking a 6.5% decline in value from TSLA’s all time high of $880.02 just two weeks prior. As TSLA’s history has proven time and time again, these temporary reductions in price represent a perfect time to invest, as TSLA shares tend to climb in a roaring fashion following short bursts of decline. This is not to mention Tesla’s record-breaking numbers that will be announced on the earnings call 1/27. I predict by the month’s end, TSLA shares surpass and create a new all time high, possibly greater than $900/share.

This is definitely extremely bullish, however here are the key components that make up this prediction.

1. Tesla’s Q4 earnings call will announce record-breaking free cash flow, revenue, deliveries, and gross profit. Actualizing these numbers to investors will drive shares up.

2. Many casual investors and bystanders underestimate the profit margins of the new Model Y. Retailing for $4,000 more than the Model 3, Tesla has previously shared that the cost of manufacturing a Model Y is less than a Model 3 due to improving technology in the manufacturing process. Not to mention Tesla’s Q4 press release did not include the rumored 100k MYs sold in under 10 hours in China as a result of the lower than expected retail. (https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/rumor-tesla-china-made-model-y-surpassed-100k-orders-within-10hrs-of-the-new-pricing-announcement) All in all, Tesla will have delivered excess of 500k vehicles and a net profit higher than expected.

3. 2021 Guidance. It is understandable that many Tesla investors are eagerly awaiting Tesla's projections for 2021 deliveries. The current "expert" consensus is ~771k deliveries, whereas I predict Tesla's 2021 guidance for deliveries to be around 850k. However, I bet internal goals will be closer to 1M vehicles delivered, as both gigafactory Berlin and Austin are slated to begin producing vehicles mid-2021. If the 850k guidance is correct and reached at the end of 2021, that will mark a 70% expansion in deliveries from 2020, putting Tesla on pace for another record year in sales & deliveries.

4. Expect Tesla to unveil additional details to current and future projects during the Q4 earnings call. Projects that could be mentioned include: Tesla Roadster, Tesla ~$25k car, Cybertruck, Semitruck, and New Gigafactory.

Charles's recommendation for market open: BUY

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Disclaimer: The author of this article possesses an existing position the stock/s discussed.

This article was originally published in the subreddit Wallstreetbets.